With the College Football Playoff intensifying, it’s time for a festive breakdown of the remaining contenders. No team is flawless, and that’s what makes the competition thrilling. Let’s analyze the strengths and weaknesses of each squad—their “nice” qualities that could propel them to a national championship and the “naughty” aspects that might lead to their downfall.
1. Oregon
Nice: A Well-Rounded Offense
Oregon’s offensive versatility makes them a formidable opponent. The Ducks run the ball 51.5% of the time, ranking 65th nationally and sixth among the playoff teams. More importantly, they excel in efficiency, ranking ninth in expected points added (EPA) per dropback and 17th in EPA per rush. They boast a top-10 success rate in both passing and rushing, ensuring a balanced attack.
Naughty: Defensive Front Challenges
While Oregon’s front seven is strong relative to most teams, it struggles against top-tier playoff competition. In games against Boise State, Ohio State, and Penn State, Oregon’s defense allowed 2.68 points per drive and saw a sharp decline in its pressure-to-blitz ratio, dropping from 1.54 to 0.92. This could be a liability against elite offenses.
2. Georgia
Nice: Generating Pressure Without Heavy Blitzing
Georgia’s defense thrives on pressuring quarterbacks without overloading blitzes. Their pressure-to-blitz ratio of 1.48 ranks ninth nationally and third among playoff contenders, making their pass rush a critical asset.
Naughty: Lack of Explosive Plays
Offensive injuries have plagued Georgia all season, limiting their ability to generate big plays. They rank 73rd in overall explosive play rate and an abysmal 114th in explosive rush rate. With starting quarterback Carson Beck injured, the offense’s lack of firepower could be a major concern.
3. Boise State
Nice: The Ashton Jeanty Factor
Boise State’s playoff hopes rest heavily on star running back Ashton Jeanty. With 2,497 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns this season, Jeanty has been a game-changer. His ability to carry the offense makes Boise a dangerous underdog.
Naughty: Struggles with Tackling
Despite ranking 38th in points allowed per possession, Boise State’s tackling is a major weakness. Their 20% missed tackle rate is the worst in the nation, leaving them vulnerable to explosive plays from opposing offenses.
4. Arizona State
Nice: Clutch Performances in Tight Games
The Sun Devils have demonstrated resilience in close contests, winning six of seven one-score games. Their ability to handle high-pressure moments could be an advantage in the playoffs.
Naughty: Red-Zone Defensive Woes
Arizona State struggles once opponents reach the red zone, allowing 4.58 points per red-zone possession (101st nationally). While they excel in goal-to-go situations, their inability to contain offenses between the 20 and 10-yard lines remains a concern.
5. Texas
Nice: A Dominant Defensive Line
Texas has built an elite defensive front, comparable to Georgia’s powerhouse units. With standout players like Vernon Broughton, Alfred Collins, and Colin Simmons, the Longhorns’ defensive line is a major asset.
Naughty: Turnover Troubles
Texas has struggled with ball security all season, ranking 100th in turnover rate and 124th in total offensive turnovers. While their defense has minimized the damage, costly giveaways could be their downfall.
6. Penn State
Nice: First-Down Efficiency
Penn State excels in keeping their offense ahead of schedule, leading the nation in first-down success rate (51.4%) and EPA per snap (0.24). This efficiency helps them avoid difficult third-down situations.
Naughty: Defensive Penalties
Despite boasting a top-10 defensive success rate, Penn State is one of the most penalized teams. With 36 defensive penalties (ranking 116th nationally), unnecessary infractions could cost them in high-stakes moments.
7. Notre Dame
Nice: Winning the Turnover Battle
Notre Dame has been exceptional at forcing turnovers and capitalizing on them. Their +16 turnover margin ranks second nationally, and their +7.69 points-off-turnover margin per game sets them apart from other playoff teams.
Naughty: Third-and-Long Struggles
Notre Dame’s offense falters in long-yardage situations, converting just 15.2% of third downs requiring seven or more yards (129th nationally). Their reliance on the run game often puts them in difficult passing scenarios.
8. Ohio State
Nice: Second-Half Adjustments
Ohio State dominates after halftime, outscoring opponents by an average of 13 points in the second half (third nationally). Their third-quarter margin of +10.00 is the best in the country, often putting games out of reach.
Naughty: Special Teams Struggles
While an improvement from last season’s dismal 112th ranking, Ohio State’s special teams still rank only 100th in EPA. Special teams missteps could prove costly in a close playoff game.
Each team remaining in the College Football Playoff has strengths that could lead them to a championship and weaknesses that could spell their downfall. As the playoffs unfold, it will be fascinating to see which teams capitalize on their strengths—and which get tripped up by their flaws.
Source: CBS Sports
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